Tool 05 · Risk

Project Risk Estimator

Adjust 25 project risk factors to generate a live 0–100 risk score with SHAP attribution — showing exactly which factors are driving risk. The score and summary update instantly as you change any input.

AI Model
LightGBM + SHAP Attribution
r=0.71
Correlation
25
Risk Factors
340+
Training Projects
How It Works

Adjust the 25 risk sliders on the left. Each slider runs from 1 (low risk) to 5 (high risk).

The composite 0–100 risk score updates live. SHAP bars show each factor's contribution to the total score — so you know exactly where to focus mitigation effort.

Red (70+) = high risk. Amber (40–70) = moderate. Green (<40) = well-controlled.

Live Risk Assessment — updates on every change

Adjust Risk Factors

Each factor is weighted by its historical impact on SAP programme outcomes across 340+ post-mortems. SHAP attribution shows each factor's marginal contribution to the overall risk score.

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Risk Factors (1=Low · 5=High)
Live Risk Score + SHAP Attribution
32
Low
Well Controlled
Adjust risk factors to see live updates
Top Risk Drivers (SHAP)

Risk Summary

Set risk factors to generate your project risk summary.

AI Architecture

LightGBM + SHAP — Explainable Risk Scoring

Gradient boosted regression trained on 340+ SAP project outcomes, with SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) decomposing every prediction into auditable factor contributions.

Gradient Boosted Trees
LightGBM trained on 25 risk variables from 340+ SAP post-mortems with actual risk outcome labels. Achieves r=0.71 Pearson correlation against realised risk scores — outperforming linear models by 34%.
SHAP Attribution
SHAP values satisfy the axioms of efficiency, symmetry, and consistency — meaning they fairly allocate the total risk score across all 25 factors. This enables defensible, data-led risk conversations with clients and steering committees.
340+ Post-mortem Database
Training data sourced from completed SAP programmes with verified outcome ratings — covering scope overruns, budget exceedances, go-live delays, and post-implementation stability. Enriched quarterly with new completions.